New nuclear deal unlikely despite Khamenei’s intervention

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last week made an unexpected statement to open the door to potential negotiations with the US concerning Tehran’s nuclear program. This move has prompted widespread speculation and raised the question: Could it lead to a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal?

Khamenei informed President Masoud Pezeshkian’s new government that there was “no harm” in engaging with its “enemy.” But why is Khamenei now signaling a willingness to negotiate?

To understand the significance of this shift, it is worth reflecting on a similar moment in Iranian history. Back in 2015, during President Hassan Rouhani’s tenure, the supreme leader made analogous comments that laid the groundwork for the negotiations that eventually led to the nuclear deal.

Rouhani, like Pezeshkian, was seen as a moderate figure within the Iranian political landscape, someone who was open to dialogue with the West and who sought to improve relations with the EU. The parallels between these two moments may raise questions among some politicians about whether Iran is once again preparing to engage in serious diplomatic efforts.

One of the driving forces behind Khamenei’s recent remarks may be Iran’s dire economic situation. The country has been grappling with severe economic challenges, including skyrocketing inflation and high unemployment rates, which have fueled widespread public discontent. This economic downturn has had a devastating impact on the lives of ordinary Iranians, many of whom have seen their purchasing power eroded by the rapid devaluation of the national currency, the rial.

It is plausible that the leadership sees the lifting of sanctions as a way to alleviate some domestic pressure

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

The economic crisis has created deep dissatisfaction within the country, with many Iranians blaming the government’s policies for their hardships. The pressure on the regime has been mounting and it is plausible that the leadership sees the lifting of international sanctions as a way to alleviate some of this pressure. By reopening the possibility of negotiations with the US, Khamenei might be seeking a path to economic relief that could help stabilize the country and prevent potential domestic unrest.

Another factor that could be influencing Iran’s decision to reconsider negotiations is the escalating tension with Israel. In recent months, Iran and its proxies have been involved in a series of increasingly intense confrontations with Israel, a close ally of the US. The situation has become so volatile that it has sparked fears of a broader regional conflict. For Iran, securing financial resources to support its military and proxy operations has become more critical than ever.

Furthermore, there is growing concern within the Iranian government about the potential for military strikes against its nuclear facilities. From Iran’s perspective, Israel and the US are prepared to take military action to prevent it from becoming a nuclear-armed state. This threat could be another reason why Iran is considering negotiations.

Iran’s nuclear program has continued to advance rapidly, despite international opposition. According to the latest confidential report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which was seen by the Associated Press last week, Iran has significantly expanded its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels. The agency’s Director General Rafael Grossi had previously warned that Iran possessed enough enriched uranium to produce “several” nuclear bombs. This alarming development suggests that Iran could soon have the necessary components to assemble nuclear weapons, posing a serious threat to regional and global security.

Some may argue that Iran’s sudden openness to negotiations could be a strategic maneuver designed to buy time

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Some scholars, policy analysts and politicians may argue that Iran’s sudden openness to negotiations could be a strategic maneuver designed to buy time. By engaging in talks, Iran might be hoping to delay international action long enough to complete its nuclear program and declare itself a nuclear-armed state — a scenario that would leave the West with few options for intervention.

However, even if Khamenei’s offer is genuine, the current geopolitical context makes a revival of the nuclear deal highly unlikely. Unlike the situation in 2015, Iran is now embroiled in a heightened conflict with Israel. The ongoing tit-for-tat retaliations between the two nations make the prospect of the US sitting down at the negotiating table with Iran increasingly unpalatable for Washington. Any attempt to negotiate under such conditions could be seen as undermining the US’ commitments to its allies in the region, particularly Israel.

Moreover, the political landscape in both Iran and the US has shifted significantly since the days of the Rouhani administration. Back then, there was a strong political will on both sides to reach a deal. The Obama administration in the US was keen on diplomacy and Rouhani, supported by a more moderate faction in Iran, was committed to securing an agreement. Today, however, the situation is different. President Joe Biden’s term is drawing to a close and his administration faces considerable opposition from conservative elements, which are staunchly against reviving the nuclear deal. Similarly, in Iran, hard-liners have gained more influence and Khamenei himself has laid out strict red lines for any potential talks, emphasizing his deep distrust of Washington.

In conclusion, while Khamenei’s statement about opening the door to nuclear negotiations bears similarities to the rhetoric used during Rouhani’s tenure, the current geopolitical environment is markedly different. The combination of heightened tensions with Israel, political opposition in both Iran and the US and the advanced state of Iran’s nuclear program makes the likelihood of reaching a new deal vanishingly slim.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh